Where This Is Heading

I was recently asked to chat about design on a podcast. The host is young, and just getting into the tech/design world. The premise of the podcast is that she talks to people with a lot more experience than her so she can learn the ropes. I've been thinking about the sorts of things she might ask in order to get my thoughts in order. In the pre-read, she mentioned this doozy:

"Why should someone become a UX Designer when it seems everyone is losing their jobs?"

Oh dear. This one really gets the heart of the issue, doesn't it? Most experienced designers I know have a pretty pessimistic view of the industry. What is most helpful and valuable for someone just entering? Do you tell them work hard and everything will be fine, or do you tell them the truth? How did we get here, where the only two options are being upsetting or lying?

But historically speaking, this isn't a unique situation. I remember when writing a blog about a focused topic was enough to net real money from Google Ads. But by the time people realised there was a business in it, the blog market was saturated. Podcasts were similar. If you're asking in 2024 how to make money with podcasts, sorry, you kind of missed it. YouTube went through the same thing. For every Mr Beast, there are millions of people who never quite made it. I've come to understand and believe that the question isn't "how do I climb this ladder," but instead "how can I make my own ladder?"

There was a time when HBO was struggling cable station without much content to call its own. That was the time to swoop in and propose a different kind of show, which is how the Sopranos got on the air. There was a time when U2 couldn't get anyone to come to their shows. That was the time to sign them to a label, not after they blew up. There was a time where it was hard for Microsoft to attract designers, which is when I was able to squirm my way in. In all three examples, HBO, U2, and Microsoft, the bar has gotten much, much higher. So the key isn't in throwing yourself over and over at the heavyweights. It's doing what you can to find the next heavyweight.

And that doesn't even address the biggest issue: designers are going to go away. The name will exist, the work will exist, but the job description as we've come to understand it will shift significantly. Traditionally there's been a three-legged stool for product: design, engineering, and product. If you lose your designer, you have options. You can use Canva, you can use component libraries, or you can use a developer who has some front-end skill. If you lose your developer, you have options. You can use v0.dev, chatGPT, Copilot, a bunch of no-code solution, templates, wysiwyg editors, and on and on. But if you lose someone who can think about product, you're sunk. You need a product person. And you always will.

So should everyone just become a product person? I think that's half of it. There's a huge difference between a product person who knows code and design and one who doesn't. I think the product person of the future knows how to make things beautiful, which means both on the design and code side. The product person of the future knows the importance of user research and how to conduct it. The product person of the future is enough of an entrepreneur to not wait for opportunity but to seek it out and make it happen.

The floor is rising, significantly. You have to be pretty amazing to even draw even with other people who are trying to go for the same jobs you are. Everything is automated and it's never been easier to get started. So you have to contend with that. On the other hand, the ceiling has never been higher either. "Solopreneurs" have never been able to do this much, this capably, this quickly, in human recorded history.

The future will be owned by people who can do everything. We're moving out of specialists working spread across different parts of monolithic businesses. We are moving towards people being able to combine all their skills together into an impressive package and steer their own way. It's going to be a hard time for people sitting back, and a really rewarding time for people who can lean forward. The opportunity is out there, but no one's going to point it out to you. By the time they do, it'll be too late.